Last month the Apple Watch Ultra 2 became official, one year after its predecessor, the original Ultra. With that in mind, you might be expecting the Apple Watch Ultra 3 to be announced alongside the iPhone 16 generation in September of 2024.
That would be a logical assumption, but it turns out it might actually be wrong. Famous Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo today says the company hasn't yet started working on the next Apple Watch Ultra, and that's a bad sign.
It's "unusual", he says, given how long the development cycle is. We assume this means that by this time last year, the Ultra 2 was already being worked on. According to Kuo, if Apple doesn't start developing the Ultra 3 by December, it's "almost confirmed" that we won't see a new Apple Watch Ultra in 2024.
Kuo speculates that this could be down to Apple needing more
Without the Ultra 3 coming out in 2024, shipments of the Ultra series are expected to decline by around 20-30% next year compared to 2023, and the total Apple Watch shipments will decline by around 10% next year compared to this one, down to a total of about 35 million units.
Of course, this is mostly speculation, even though it does come from a reliable source. The thing is - Apple still has a month or so to commence the development of the next Ultra in order for it to make the usual launch window, so don't rule it out completely just yet.
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